UFC 254 - Reasons Why Gaethje may Upset Khabib

Coming off 4 straight finishes, Justin Gaethje is set to face Khabib Nurmagomedov on October 25, 2020 at UFC 254. Known for his knockout power and aggressive fighting style, Khabib may be facing his biggest threat yet. Here are the reasons why Justin Gaethje may come out on top at UFC 254.

Khabib absolutely dominates those whose wrestling is not up to par. Watch his fights against Edson Barboza and Conor McGregor to see this first-hand. The big question is can he outwrestle Justin Gaethje? Gaethje is a former All-American NCAA Division I wrestler who has a much more solid wrestling background opposed to the majority of Khabib’s opponents.

Most of Khabib’s fights involve him going to the ground, controlling his opponent and raining down an onslaught of strikes. Per UFC’s official stats, Gaethje defends 80% of all takedowns attempted by his opponents and Khabib has not been as dominant against fighters who have better wrestling backgrounds such as Al Iaquinta.

Gaethje has finished 8 out of his last 10 opponents by knockout or TKO. By comparison, Khabib has finished 5 out of his last 10 opponents, with 3 by submission, 1 by KO and another by TKO. Gaethje has been very active over the last 3 years with dominant finishes over major opponents. His leg kicks also pose a unique threat and are another factor that could come into play when they face off in October.

Tony Ferguson who was formerly thought to be the biggest threat to Khabib and the former number one contender, was clearly outmatched when he attempted to stand and strike with Justin Gaethje. Gaethje also averages 7.7 significant strikes per minute. The second highest in the UFC after Paulo Costa.

Gaethje has changed his approached. He understands fighting unhinged is not possible when fighting the top contenders in the division. Gaethje faced off against Michael Johnson in 2017, which many argued was the greatest UFC fight of the year. Despite taking heavy damage and getting stunned, Gaethje was able to finish Michael Johnson in a dramatic fashion. Don’t expect to see this version of Justin Gaethje at UFC 254. Gaethje in recent interviews has said his coaches want him to change his strategy and take less damage.

Khabib Nurmagomedov’s accomplishments in the octagon cannot be ignored. He holds an undefeated record with 28 consecutive wins and 16 finishs. Khabib has faced little resistance in his path to the championship and in his two title defenses with the majority of his opponents losing decisively.